【英国】英国：我们须热烈欢迎中国成为世界超级强权
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论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-370812-1-1.html
London has become rather blasé about foreign bigwigs. Presidents and prime ministers come and go. The flags, cavalcades, banquets and photo opportunities have become a routine part of city life.
Next week’s visit by President Xi Jinping merits serious attention. He can realistically claim to be the most powerful man in the world, leading a country that, by some measures, has the biggest economy in the world and may before long match the US in political, and even military, importance.
下周习主席访问英国值得更深入的关切，他甚至可以说是世界上货真价实最有权力的人，他的国家，在某种统计GDP的方式下，已然是世界上最大的经济体，可能不久也会在政治，乃至军事上超越美国。
For all that, the visit is something of a gamble. The British Government has calculated — rightly, in my view — that it is much better to be positive and welcoming of China’s emergence as a superpower than grudging and frightened. But there are elements of risk.
综上所述，参访对于英国可能是某种豪赌，但是在我看来，英国政府的赌注赌对了，光明磊落大大方方的欢迎中国成为超级强权，比满是厌恶和恐惧要好太多。不过，其中风险依然存在。
[copy]First, Britain has diverged from the Americans, whose approach these days is much less accommodating. We backed the Chinese when they wanted to lead in the establishment of a new Asian infrastructure bank in the face of US hostility. We have taken a trusting approach to Chinese investments in telecommunications, and now nuclear power, which the US would run a mile from. The Americans are waiting to say, we told you so.
首当其冲，英国会和美国背道而驰，美国对于被超越那一天的到来并不想直面。当中国顶着美国的敌意，建立了亚洲开发银行，我们英国却在背后支持中国。英国曾经对中国投资通讯行业秉承信任，现在，中国人的触手又伸向核电领域，尽管这一领域美国人避之而不及，但美国人其实早就准备想说一句话，我们就知道会这样。
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-370812-1-1.html
London has become rather blasé about foreign bigwigs. Presidents and prime ministers come and go. The flags, cavalcades, banquets and photo opportunities have become a routine part of city life.
Next week’s visit by President Xi Jinping merits serious attention. He can realistically claim to be the most powerful man in the world, leading a country that, by some measures, has the biggest economy in the world and may before long match the US in political, and even military, importance.
下周习主席访问英国值得更深入的关切，他甚至可以说是世界上货真价实最有权力的人，他的国家，在某种统计GDP的方式下，已然是世界上最大的经济体，可能不久也会在政治，乃至军事上超越美国。
For all that, the visit is something of a gamble. The British Government has calculated — rightly, in my view — that it is much better to be positive and welcoming of China’s emergence as a superpower than grudging and frightened. But there are elements of risk.
综上所述，参访对于英国可能是某种豪赌，但是在我看来，英国政府的赌注赌对了，光明磊落大大方方的欢迎中国成为超级强权，比满是厌恶和恐惧要好太多。不过，其中风险依然存在。
[copy]First, Britain has diverged from the Americans, whose approach these days is much less accommodating. We backed the Chinese when they wanted to lead in the establishment of a new Asian infrastructure bank in the face of US hostility. We have taken a trusting approach to Chinese investments in telecommunications, and now nuclear power, which the US would run a mile from. The Americans are waiting to say, we told you so.
首当其冲，英国会和美国背道而驰，美国对于被超越那一天的到来并不想直面。当中国顶着美国的敌意，建立了亚洲开发银行，我们英国却在背后支持中国。英国曾经对中国投资通讯行业秉承信任，现在，中国人的触手又伸向核电领域，尽管这一领域美国人避之而不及，但美国人其实早就准备想说一句话，我们就知道会这样。
Second, China is struggling with its most difficult set of economic management problems since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 35 years ago. These reforms triggered the most remarkable transformation in living standards in human history and have led to almost boundless optimism in the ability of China’s managerial elite to perform miracles of economic growth. Some critics are arguing that an economic Armageddon is around the corner. I doubt that. I am an optimist in this debate and I argue the case at some length in my book, After the Storm.
第二，中国遇到了邓小平改革开放35年以来最为严峻的经济改革问题。这35年的改革创造了人类历史上改善生活条件最伟大的成就，使得人们对中国统治精英创造经济奇迹产生了无限乐观想法。尽管有评论说，中国经济末日在角落里伺机蓄发，但我不敢苟同，我对中国经济充满乐观，我在我的新书里有深度讨论。[/copy]
But there are major problems for China in managing a dramatic and orderly slowdown and achieving a major structural shift from export-based and investment-led growth to private and public consumption and services. There are big uncertainties over the capacity of the authorities to manage an explosion of credit, and also over the capacity of the party apparatus to accommodate radical market-based reform. A major crisis is possible but not probable.
中国依然有几个主要问题，中国目前正在处理经济减速和经济结构调整，从以出口和投资为增肌增长点，改变为私人及公共消费和服务业为增长点。对于政府处理信贷能力依然有不确定性，及政党对于这种市场为导向的改革的接纳能力依然不确定，以上不确定性尽管可能会引发危机，但是可能性不大。
第二，中国遇到了邓小平改革开放35年以来最为严峻的经济改革问题。这35年的改革创造了人类历史上改善生活条件最伟大的成就，使得人们对中国统治精英创造经济奇迹产生了无限乐观想法。尽管有评论说，中国经济末日在角落里伺机蓄发，但我不敢苟同，我对中国经济充满乐观，我在我的新书里有深度讨论。[/copy]
But there are major problems for China in managing a dramatic and orderly slowdown and achieving a major structural shift from export-based and investment-led growth to private and public consumption and services. There are big uncertainties over the capacity of the authorities to manage an explosion of credit, and also over the capacity of the party apparatus to accommodate radical market-based reform. A major crisis is possible but not probable.
中国依然有几个主要问题，中国目前正在处理经济减速和经济结构调整，从以出口和投资为增肌增长点，改变为私人及公共消费和服务业为增长点。对于政府处理信贷能力依然有不确定性，及政党对于这种市场为导向的改革的接纳能力依然不确定，以上不确定性尽管可能会引发危机，但是可能性不大。
And third, China is not evolving into a liberal, let alone multi-party democracy of the kind Western governments are more comfortable with. China is not like India, Pakistan, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Nigeria, Turkey or even Iran: emerging powers with pluralistic politics.
第三中国还没有形成自由主义，并不是多党制的民主社会，和西方政府类型完全不同，所以更好相处。中国和印度巴基斯坦南非巴西墨西哥印尼南韩尼日利亚土耳其，甚至伊朗都截然不同，这些新兴国家有着多元的政治力量。
[copy]There will be some strained and carefully choreographed conversations about human rights behind closed doors and some less predictable demonstrations outside. I’ve had some experience as a UK minister travelling in China discussing these issues with Communist Party officials and meeting representatives of groups whose campaigning has been actively discouraged; trade unionists, gay people, haemophiliacs. I do believe that we are right to assert our own values but this can be done in ways that are not gratuitously offensive. And we have rather more cringeworthy relationships than this: the Chinese criminal justice system is positively benign in comparison with that of our so-called ally, Saudi Arabia.
在访问期间，一些难堪和仔细挑选的人权问题也会进行闭门会谈，还有小规模的游行示威不会没有，我曾经作为部长到访中国和中国红党官员进行磋商，会见一些组织的代表人物，他们的行动实际上令人气馁。我始终坚信我们有表达我们价值观的权利，但是这一切应该在不使对方感觉到被言语攻击的情况下表达。难道我们不是还有更令人不舒服的外交关系吗？比起我们所谓盟友--沙特--的司法系统中国不是更好吗？
第三中国还没有形成自由主义，并不是多党制的民主社会，和西方政府类型完全不同，所以更好相处。中国和印度巴基斯坦南非巴西墨西哥印尼南韩尼日利亚土耳其，甚至伊朗都截然不同，这些新兴国家有着多元的政治力量。
[copy]There will be some strained and carefully choreographed conversations about human rights behind closed doors and some less predictable demonstrations outside. I’ve had some experience as a UK minister travelling in China discussing these issues with Communist Party officials and meeting representatives of groups whose campaigning has been actively discouraged; trade unionists, gay people, haemophiliacs. I do believe that we are right to assert our own values but this can be done in ways that are not gratuitously offensive. And we have rather more cringeworthy relationships than this: the Chinese criminal justice system is positively benign in comparison with that of our so-called ally, Saudi Arabia.
在访问期间，一些难堪和仔细挑选的人权问题也会进行闭门会谈，还有小规模的游行示威不会没有，我曾经作为部长到访中国和中国红党官员进行磋商，会见一些组织的代表人物，他们的行动实际上令人气馁。我始终坚信我们有表达我们价值观的权利，但是这一切应该在不使对方感觉到被言语攻击的情况下表达。难道我们不是还有更令人不舒服的外交关系吗？比起我们所谓盟友--沙特--的司法系统中国不是更好吗？
This visit is, however, overwhelmingly about commerce. Britain’s starting point on trade is pretty abysmal. Germany and France, let alone Japan and the US, are way ahead in exports to China. Optimism about exports of UK-branded luxury goods such as Jaguar cars have been deflated by the recent slowdown. But the firms I have taken to China in recent years — in creative industries, professional educational services and advanced manufacturing — are now sinking roots and winning orders.
这次访问大部分都是关于商业磋商，英国的贸易起始分相当糟糕。除了日本，美国，就说德国和法国，在出口到中国方面都遥遥领先于中国。英国品牌的奢侈品出口到中国很乐观，比如受到经济下滑影响的捷豹。在最近几年我所引介到中国的工资，多是创新工业，专业教育服务和先进农业，都已经扎根中国赢得订单。[/copy]
The business environment in China is not easy, with problems ranging from corruption to theft of intellectual property, but we have little choice but to commit.
中国的商业环境并不容易，从腐败到剽窃到知识产权，但我们只能选择这样。
这次访问大部分都是关于商业磋商，英国的贸易起始分相当糟糕。除了日本，美国，就说德国和法国，在出口到中国方面都遥遥领先于中国。英国品牌的奢侈品出口到中国很乐观，比如受到经济下滑影响的捷豹。在最近几年我所引介到中国的工资，多是创新工业，专业教育服务和先进农业，都已经扎根中国赢得订单。[/copy]
The business environment in China is not easy, with problems ranging from corruption to theft of intellectual property, but we have little choice but to commit.
中国的商业环境并不容易，从腐败到剽窃到知识产权，但我们只能选择这样。
The main UK ambition from the visit is to attract Chinese inward investment, tapping into the large Chinese savings surplus. Unlike big Indian, German and Japanese companies, however, who like to make things, the Chinese have so far been, depressingly, more interested in property development — though there are good exceptions such as the telecommunications company Huawei. George Osborne has set his sights on getting large Chinese investments in infrastructure projects like HS2 and nuclear power. Our pitch would be more persuasive if our record in infrastructure were less dismal and if the Government were to lift its self-defeating fatwa on borrowing to invest. There will be criticism of Chinese investment in nuclear power. But the real issue here is the extent of subsidy for that industry, not the nationality of the investors.
这次访问英国的主要目的在于吸引中国投资，目的在于中国积累的大量顺差。但是和印度德国日本的大公司更倾向于生产产品不同，中国的公司到目前为止更喜欢的是房地产开发，尽管有些例外，比如电信公司华为。George Osborne已经着眼于中国在基础设施上的巨量投资，比如HS2和核电站。如果我们的基础建设纪录争气的话，如果政府以前不自我阉割招商引资的话，我们制定的标准才能更有说服力。可能有人会批评中国投资核电行业，但是真正问题是可能是如果没有中国投资，我们会给核电站多少补贴吧。
这次访问英国的主要目的在于吸引中国投资，目的在于中国积累的大量顺差。但是和印度德国日本的大公司更倾向于生产产品不同，中国的公司到目前为止更喜欢的是房地产开发，尽管有些例外，比如电信公司华为。George Osborne已经着眼于中国在基础设施上的巨量投资，比如HS2和核电站。如果我们的基础建设纪录争气的话，如果政府以前不自我阉割招商引资的话，我们制定的标准才能更有说服力。可能有人会批评中国投资核电行业，但是真正问题是可能是如果没有中国投资，我们会给核电站多少补贴吧。
The main headline-catching initiative will be the Chinese interest in using the City of London to help advance a policy of currency convertibility. China is a long way from having a global currency, let alone a rival to the dollar, but the direction of travel is clear and generally welcome. We should acknowledge more freely that China has recently played a constructive role in dealing with financial imbalances and currency misalignments — in marked contrast to, say, Germany.
上头条的新闻可能是中国将利用伦敦完善其加强货币流动性的政策，人民币成为全球货币还有很长的路要走，除了美元这个竞争对手，人民币有着远大前程受到欢迎。我们必须承认中国在最近的财政失衡和货币偏差方面，相较于德国，更加自由。
But if I were a British steel worker in the north of England or Wales I would be worrying that the Chancellor is focusing on providing bread for City bankers while their industry is being destroyed by the export of excess capacity from the Chinese steel industry. If I were sitting in the room, talking to the Chinese President, I would want a robust conversation about steel pricing to show the Chinese that we are serious about our real economy.
如果，我是一名来自于英格兰北部或者威尔士的钢铁业工人，我可能会担心首相只想着大城市里的银行家，而我们的行业会被中国钢铁行业的超量生产能力冲垮。如果我可以和中国主席对话，我会据理力争钢铁价格，告诉中国我们对我们的实体经济很担忧。
上头条的新闻可能是中国将利用伦敦完善其加强货币流动性的政策，人民币成为全球货币还有很长的路要走，除了美元这个竞争对手，人民币有着远大前程受到欢迎。我们必须承认中国在最近的财政失衡和货币偏差方面，相较于德国，更加自由。
But if I were a British steel worker in the north of England or Wales I would be worrying that the Chancellor is focusing on providing bread for City bankers while their industry is being destroyed by the export of excess capacity from the Chinese steel industry. If I were sitting in the room, talking to the Chinese President, I would want a robust conversation about steel pricing to show the Chinese that we are serious about our real economy.
如果，我是一名来自于英格兰北部或者威尔士的钢铁业工人，我可能会担心首相只想着大城市里的银行家，而我们的行业会被中国钢铁行业的超量生产能力冲垮。如果我可以和中国主席对话，我会据理力争钢铁价格，告诉中国我们对我们的实体经济很担忧。
I have my disagreements with my former Conservative colleagues in the coalition government but I believe that Messrs Cameron and Osborne have been absolutely right to give priority to building up our long-term relationship with major emerging powers such as China and India. It’s difficult to strike a balance between enthusiasm and obsequiousness but a positive approach to China and its president together with hard-headed business negotiation is the way to proceed.
在连横政府里，我曾经和我之前的保守党同僚意见不合，但是我相信，首相卡梅隆和 Osborne 会把英国和新兴国家如中国印度的关系放在首位。在热情和奉承之间很难找到一个平衡，只有保持头脑冷静和中国及中国领导人进行商业会谈，才是该做的事情。
在连横政府里，我曾经和我之前的保守党同僚意见不合，但是我相信，首相卡梅隆和 Osborne 会把英国和新兴国家如中国印度的关系放在首位。在热情和奉承之间很难找到一个平衡，只有保持头脑冷静和中国及中国领导人进行商业会谈，才是该做的事情。