【讨论台风】西北太平洋台风1709纳沙(Nesat)
【扰动99W】https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5235124062
【低压11W】https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5243686343
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORYNAME TS 1709 NESAT (1709) UPGRADED FROM TDANALYSISPSTN 260300UTC 15.9N 128.3E FAIRMOVE NNW 08KTPRES 998HPAMXWD 035KTGUST 050KT30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTHFORECAST24HF 270300UTC 18.4N 128.5E 60NM 70%MOVE N 06KTPRES 990HPA
【低压11W】https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5243686343
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORYNAME TS 1709 NESAT (1709) UPGRADED FROM TDANALYSISPSTN 260300UTC 15.9N 128.3E FAIRMOVE NNW 08KTPRES 998HPAMXWD 035KTGUST 050KT30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTHFORECAST24HF 270300UTC 18.4N 128.5E 60NM 70%MOVE N 06KTPRES 990HPA
WTPQ23 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1709 NESAT (1709) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 15.9N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 18.4N 128.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1709 NESAT (1709) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 15.9N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 18.4N 128.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
风切影响严重,LLCC几乎已经要外露。这样一来就彻底变成只凭借高海温乱爆对流,结构却毫无长进的烂台。目前看麦德姆水平已经难以达到,另外由于92W风切条件好于纳沙,甚至需要重新评估EC预测的合理性。
EC和GFS已经趋同,92W应该可以在今晚到明早命名,之后两台风开始藤原,使纳沙加速登陆台湾,92W东北移转西北移登陆福建。最后两个台风将在陆上合并为一个大季风低压(由于纳沙登陆后急剧减弱,暂无法说谁吃谁),并将季风槽拉到陆地上。随着这个低压缓慢北上,便出现了CMA预报的福建到山东沿海的暴雨过程,需要防范可能的暴雨大灾。