【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风2020-Harold
TPPS11 PGTW 022114
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 02/2050Z
C. 10.10S
D. 160.63E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1742Z 10.23S 159.93E SSMS
02/1755Z 10.15S 160.08E SSMS
02/1924Z 10.17S 160.55E SSMS
BERMEA
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 02/2050Z
C. 10.10S
D. 160.63E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1742Z 10.23S 159.93E SSMS
02/1755Z 10.15S 160.08E SSMS
02/1924Z 10.17S 160.55E SSMS
BERMEA
TXPS24 KNES 030016
TCSWSP
A. HAROLD (90P)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 10.9S
D. 161.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. DT=2.5 BASED ON .55 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIM
TCSWSP
A. HAROLD (90P)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 10.9S
D. 161.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. DT=2.5 BASED ON .55 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIM
Details of Tropical Cyclone Harold at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South, 160.8 degrees East , 160 kilometres southeast of Honiara and 1770 kilometres east northeast of Cairns .
Movement: east southeast at 28 kilometres per hour .
The cyclone is forecast to continue moving towards the southeast (outside of the Australian Eastern Region) while intensifying during today.
Longer term, the system is expected to continue moving towards the southeast with a slower speed, and is likely to affect the central and southern parts of Vanuatu late in the weekend or early next week as a severe tropical cyclone.
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South, 160.8 degrees East , 160 kilometres southeast of Honiara and 1770 kilometres east northeast of Cairns .
Movement: east southeast at 28 kilometres per hour .
The cyclone is forecast to continue moving towards the southeast (outside of the Australian Eastern Region) while intensifying during today.
Longer term, the system is expected to continue moving towards the southeast with a slower speed, and is likely to affect the central and southern parts of Vanuatu late in the weekend or early next week as a severe tropical cyclone.
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报：刘 达 签发：许映龙 2020 年 04 月 03 日 10 时
澳大利亚附近海域一级热带气旋“哈罗德”生成
一级热带气旋“哈罗德”（HAROLD）已于今天（4月3日）凌晨（北京时，下同）在澳大利亚附近海域生成，其中心上午8点钟位于澳大利亚凯恩斯市（CAIRNS）东北偏东方向约1770公里的洋面上，就是南纬10.6度、东经160.8度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级），中心最低气压为997百帕。
预计，“哈罗德”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东北偏东方向移动，强度将逐渐加强。
卫星红外监测图像
（北京时间2020年4月3日08时00分）
预报：刘 达 签发：许映龙 2020 年 04 月 03 日 10 时
澳大利亚附近海域一级热带气旋“哈罗德”生成
一级热带气旋“哈罗德”（HAROLD）已于今天（4月3日）凌晨（北京时，下同）在澳大利亚附近海域生成，其中心上午8点钟位于澳大利亚凯恩斯市（CAIRNS）东北偏东方向约1770公里的洋面上，就是南纬10.6度、东经160.8度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级），中心最低气压为997百帕。
预计，“哈罗德”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东北偏东方向移动，强度将逐渐加强。
卫星红外监测图像
（北京时间2020年4月3日08时00分）
TPPS11 PGTW 032121
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 03/2050Z
C. 13.73S
D. 163.87E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.00 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1743Z 13.52S 163.80E SSMS
BERMEA
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 03/2050Z
C. 13.73S
D. 163.87E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.00 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1743Z 13.52S 163.80E SSMS
BERMEA
TXPS41 PHFO 032343
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2334 UTC FRI APR 03 2020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)
B. 03/2300Z
C. 13.9S
D. 163.8E
E. HIMAWARI
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A BLACK SURROUNDING SHADE IS AN E-NO
OF 5.5 MINUS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT GIVES A DT OF 5.0. PAT AGREES.
MET IS 4.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
03/1911Z 13.8S 163.7E SSMS
$$
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2334 UTC FRI APR 03 2020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)
B. 03/2300Z
C. 13.9S
D. 163.8E
E. HIMAWARI
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A BLACK SURROUNDING SHADE IS AN E-NO
OF 5.5 MINUS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT GIVES A DT OF 5.0. PAT AGREES.
MET IS 4.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
03/1911Z 13.8S 163.7E SSMS
$$
TPPS11 PGTW 040039
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 13.84S
D. 164.22E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/21HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A
4.5 AND PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF +1.0 TNO
CHANGE IN 6HRS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1911Z 13.82S 163.77E SSMS
BERMEA
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 13.84S
D. 164.22E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/21HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A
4.5 AND PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF +1.0 TNO
CHANGE IN 6HRS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1911Z 13.82S 163.77E SSMS
BERMEA
FKPS01 NFFN 040104
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200404/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HAROLD
ADVISORY NR: 2020/4
OBS PSN: 04/0000Z S1354 E16418
CB: WI 310NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: SE 08KT
C: 967HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/0600 S1424 E16448
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/1200 S1448 E16512
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/1800 S1512 E16530
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/0000 S1530 E16542
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200404/0700Z
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200404/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HAROLD
ADVISORY NR: 2020/4
OBS PSN: 04/0000Z S1354 E16418
CB: WI 310NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: SE 08KT
C: 967HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/0600 S1424 E16448
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/1200 S1448 E16512
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/1800 S1512 E16530
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/0000 S1530 E16542
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200404/0700Z
JTWC上望120KT
THERE HAS BEEN NO GOOD MICROWAVE PASS SINCE
031911Z, BUT THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED BANDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS USING A COMBINATION OF
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES (PGTW/PHFO/NFFN), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF T4.8.
THERE HAS BEEN NO GOOD MICROWAVE PASS SINCE
031911Z, BUT THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED BANDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS USING A COMBINATION OF
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES (PGTW/PHFO/NFFN), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF T4.8.
TXPS41 PHFO 040550
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0550 UTC SAT APR 04 2020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)
B. 04/0500Z
C. 14.2S
D. 164.8E
E. HIMAWARI
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH AVERAGE 1 DEG SURROUNDING BAND IN
VIS YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 4.5. PAT AGREES WITH DT. FINAL T
BASED ON DT...WHICH BREAKS CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. NOTE...THE BD CURVE FOR AN EYE PATTERN USING EIR
INDICATES HAROLD MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE INTENSE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
HOUSTON
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0550 UTC SAT APR 04 2020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)
B. 04/0500Z
C. 14.2S
D. 164.8E
E. HIMAWARI
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH AVERAGE 1 DEG SURROUNDING BAND IN
VIS YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 4.5. PAT AGREES WITH DT. FINAL T
BASED ON DT...WHICH BREAKS CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. NOTE...THE BD CURVE FOR AN EYE PATTERN USING EIR
INDICATES HAROLD MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE INTENSE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
HOUSTON
TPPS11 PGTW 042115
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 15.20S
D. 165.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 66A/PBO ALL OTHERS/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 15.20S
D. 165.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 66A/PBO ALL OTHERS/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW
TPPS11 PGTW 042145
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 15.20S
D. 165.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 66A/PBO . LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 5.0.MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 15.20S
D. 165.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 66A/PBO . LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 5.0.MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW