https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5270247348

AL, 09, 2017081718, , BEST, 0, 130N, 550W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Harvey
...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable
upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development
today. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests
in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

1. Updated: An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still
lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no
indication of winds to tropical storm force. Satellite images
indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed
little in organization since earlier today. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once
again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next
day or two. The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the
middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

WTNT21 KNGU 222100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED //
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/171200Z AUG 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
REF/B/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/181900Z AUG 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT22 KNGU 181900)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 89.9W TO 23.7N 94.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221900Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 94.8W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY (09L). THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 232100Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 48.4W//

开始密集实测

路径略葩

Special Message from NHCIssued 23 Aug 2017 14:23 UTC
NHC will be re-initiating advisories at 10 AM CDT on Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

NHC再次升TS


The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recentlyupgraded Tropical Storm Harvey, located over the southwestern Gulfof Mexico.

40KT