13L THIRTEEN 190923 0000 10.8N 20.2W ATL 30 1007

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4 days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

13L LORENZO 190926 0600 14.8N 38.8W ATL 85 974