【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风SH152019
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
26.4S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240325Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY
EXPOSED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXHIBITING A WEAK FRONTAL
APPEARANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN
A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A PARTIAL 232152Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40-45 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 NM, TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (24-25 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
26.4S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240325Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY
EXPOSED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXHIBITING A WEAK FRONTAL
APPEARANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN
A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A PARTIAL 232152Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40-45 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 NM, TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (24-25 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 26.4S 163.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 166.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THIS
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 250230Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 242131Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE ELONGATED CENTER ARE 10-20
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-27 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
LOCATED NEAR 26.4S 163.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 166.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THIS
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 250230Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 242131Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE ELONGATED CENTER ARE 10-20
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-27 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.