【资料分享】对狮子种群精确的分析
Abstract
Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to our understanding ofecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital toconservation biology since wildlife authorities rely on these figures to make decisions.However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging speciessuch as carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress hasbeen made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not beenwidely adapted to African carnivores. African lions (Panthera leo) provide an excellentexample as although abundance indices have been shown to produce poor inferences, theycontinue to be used to estimate lion density and inform management and policy. In thisstudy we adapt a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture model to estimate liondensity in the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) and surrounding conservancies inKenya. We utilize sightings data from a three-month survey period to produce statisticallyrigorous spatial density estimates. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be16.85 (posterior standard deviation = 1.30) lions over one year of age per 100km2 with asex ratio of 2.2♀:1♂. We argue that such methods should be developed, improved andfavored over less reliable methods such as track and call-up surveys. We caution againsttrend analyses based on surveys of differing reliability and call for a unified framework toassess lion numbers across their range in order for better informed management and policydecisions to be made.
Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to our understanding ofecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital toconservation biology since wildlife authorities rely on these figures to make decisions.However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging speciessuch as carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress hasbeen made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not beenwidely adapted to African carnivores. African lions (Panthera leo) provide an excellentexample as although abundance indices have been shown to produce poor inferences, theycontinue to be used to estimate lion density and inform management and policy. In thisstudy we adapt a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture model to estimate liondensity in the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) and surrounding conservancies inKenya. We utilize sightings data from a three-month survey period to produce statisticallyrigorous spatial density estimates. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be16.85 (posterior standard deviation = 1.30) lions over one year of age per 100km2 with asex ratio of 2.2♀:1♂. We argue that such methods should be developed, improved andfavored over less reliable methods such as track and call-up surveys. We caution againsttrend analyses based on surveys of differing reliability and call for a unified framework toassess lion numbers across their range in order for better informed management and policydecisions to be made.
可靠的估计动物密度是我们了解生态过程和种群动态的基本原则。此外,其准确性对于保护生物学是至关重要的，因为野生动物主管当局要依靠这些数据做出决策。然而, 准确估计广泛的物种密度是出了名的难，比如估计发生在低密度的食肉动物中的密度。近年来, 亚洲食肉动物的密度估计已经取得显著进展,但是方法并未广泛适用于非洲食肉动物。非洲狮子(豹属)提供了一个很好的例子,虽然丰度指数可以产生贫乏的推论,他们继续被用来估计狮子密度和通知管理和政策。在这项研究中我们采用一个贝叶斯空间显式再模型来估计狮子密度在肯尼亚的马赛马拉国家保护区(MMNR)和周围地区。我们利用来自三个月调查期的观测数据来产生统计学上严格的空间密度估计。整体后的意思是狮子密度约为16.85(后标准差= 1.30)狮子在一年的年龄和性别比例为雌：雄=2.2：1每100平方公里。我们认为，这种方法应该开发，改进较不可靠的方法，如跟踪和调用调查。我们基于对不同可靠性调查的趋势分析，并要求建立一个统一的框架，以评估其范围内的数量，以便更好地管理和做出政策.
感谢@卡冈诺维奇的翻译。
感谢@卡冈诺维奇的翻译。
论文连接：http://pan.baidu.com/s/1slk37PF
喜欢的朋友可以到这里下载。
这是本人第一次在狮子吧发主题帖。愿狮子吧兴旺发达。
喜欢的朋友可以到这里下载。
这是本人第一次在狮子吧发主题帖。愿狮子吧兴旺发达。