【扰动97W】https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5314966279
【低压21W】https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5318250521
WTJP82 RJTD 121200
EGC:2:1:31:11:01:00
SECURITE
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF
METAREA XI(POR).
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1719 DOKSURI (1719) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 14.7N 119.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 15.3N 117.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.9N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 17.0N 112.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 18.6N 109.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 122200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DOKSURI 1719 (1719) INITIAL TIME 122200 UTC
00HR 14.7N 117.7E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 180KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 18KM/H=
NNNN

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1719 DOKSURI (1719)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 130900UTC 15.4N 115.5E FAIR

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 140900UTC 16.6N 111.6E 60NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

45HF 150600UTC 17.9N 107.8E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

69HF 160600UTC 20.7N 101.6E 140NM 70%

MOVE WNW 16KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

时 间：13 日 18 时
命 名：“杜苏芮”，DOKSURI
编 号：1719 号
中心位置：北纬15.6度、东经115.1度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级， 23米/秒（约83公里/时）
中心气压：990 hPa
参考位置：距离海南省三亚市东偏南方向约660公里
风圈半径：七级风圈半径 东北方向180公里；东南方向180公里；西南方向160公里；西北方向160公里
预报结论：“杜苏芮”将以每小时18公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
（下次更新时间为13日19时15分）

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1719 DOKSURI (1719)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 131200UTC 15.6N 114.9E FAIR

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 141200UTC 16.9N 110.8E 50NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

48HF 151200UTC 18.2N 106.4E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

72HF 161200UTC 19.6N 100.1E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 140900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY DOKSURI 1719 (1719) INITIAL TIME 140900 UTC
00HR 16.7N 110.6E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
220KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 25KM/H=
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 140900 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY DOKSURI 1719 (1719) INITIAL TIME 140900 UTC
00HR 16.7N 110.6E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
220KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 25KM/H
P+06HR 17.2N 109.3E 960HPA 40M/S
P+12HR 17.6N 108.0E 950HPA 45M/S
P+18HR 17.9N 106.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 18.2N 105.6E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 18.8N 102.3E 1000HPA 16M/S=
NNNN

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 140900
CCAA 14090 99398 11165
TALIM 18272 11241 11334 260// 93404
DOKSURI 19167 11106 12234 240// 93012
NNNN