【讨论风暴】强温带气旋NP01-0106
最近数值一直很奇怪
已经不到48h小时了
但是各个数值分歧还是很大
EC的生成点比较靠近浙江
GFS则是一个台湾低压
JMA的预测则可能是一个江淮气旋。。。
已经不到48h小时了
但是各个数值分歧还是很大
EC的生成点比较靠近浙江
GFS则是一个台湾低压
JMA的预测则可能是一个江淮气旋。。。
根据数值气旋应该有两个来源
一个是来自南支槽东北侧雨带演化来的气旋波
另外一个是台湾附近形成的一个地形低压
不管是哪个机构都是预报两者合并加强
但是哪个处于主导地位并不好说
一个是来自南支槽东北侧雨带演化来的气旋波
另外一个是台湾附近形成的一个地形低压
不管是哪个机构都是预报两者合并加强
但是哪个处于主导地位并不好说
极地涡旋就是这么被扯下来的
以至于最后两者在垂直面上几乎重合
值得注意的是其实对于冷空气来说也是双刃的
如果没有这个气旋极地涡旋绝对没有这种幅度的南下
但是极地涡旋以至于整个北亚冷堆都被气旋激活
问题是很大一部分都会被气旋带进鄂海里。。
对于一些人来说重点就是多少冷空气是被气旋加速南下了，多少是直接卷入海里了
另外EC和GFS有一个分歧
EC预报后期气旋会扯下北冰洋的一个冷涡然后作为中路冷空气补充南下
导致两次冷空气叠加 南方持续低温
GFS则认为这个冷涡会被气旋吞并
JMA EW 并上望70kt
EMERGENCY WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 970 HPA
AT 35N 146E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 35N 146E TO 36N 148E 35N 149E 34N 151E.
WARM FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 31N 153E 27N 154E.
COLD FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 30N 150E 27N 145E 24N 137E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 39N 155E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
EMERGENCY WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 970 HPA
AT 35N 146E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 35N 146E TO 36N 148E 35N 149E 34N 151E.
WARM FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 31N 153E 27N 154E.
COLD FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 30N 150E 27N 145E 24N 137E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 39N 155E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA NEAR 39N154E 963 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A FRONT FROM 40N159E TO
37N162E WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N162E 978 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 32 TO 44 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N164E 984 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW AND W
QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 30 TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NE...780 NM SE...AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50
KT. SEAS 18 TO 38 FT. ALSO WITHIN 660 NM N...540 NM NE...1020 NM
SE...AND 660 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N175W 976 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
240 NM N...600 NM SE...660 NM SW...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.LOW W OF AREA NEAR 39N154E 963 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A FRONT FROM 40N159E TO
37N162E WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N162E 978 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 32 TO 44 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N164E 984 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW AND W
QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 30 TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NE...780 NM SE...AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50
KT. SEAS 18 TO 38 FT. ALSO WITHIN 660 NM N...540 NM NE...1020 NM
SE...AND 660 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N175W 976 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
240 NM N...600 NM SE...660 NM SW...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 976 HPA
AT 40N 163E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 38N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 40N 178W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 38N 170E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 157E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 51N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 52N 142E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 149E
MOVING EAST 30 KNOTS.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 976 HPA
AT 40N 163E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 38N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 40N 178W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 38N 170E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 157E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 51N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 52N 142E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 149E
MOVING EAST 30 KNOTS.