【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风SH052019
AXAU21 ABRF 020128
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0127 UTC 02/12/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 154.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [192 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 02/0600: 13.9S 154.0E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1001
+12: 02/1200: 14.1S 154.0E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001
+18: 02/1800: 14.3S 153.9E: 065 [125]: 040 [075]: 998
+24: 03/0000: 14.5S 153.7E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 992
+36: 03/1200: 14.6S 153.6E: 100 [180]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 04/0000: 14.8S 153.5E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 996
+60: 04/1200: 14.7S 153.3E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 1001
+72: 05/0000: 14.9S 152.8E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 1004
+96: 06/0000: 14.9S 152.2E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1004
+120: 07/0000: 15.0S 152.0E: 290 [535]: 030 [055]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical low 04U has become steadily more organised during the past 24 hours.
Convection has consolidated closer to the centre and curvature has improved. An
ASCAT pass at 23UTC continued to show a slightly elongated low level centre, but
more involved with the deep convection than 12 hours previously, with a swath of
30 knot winds in the southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis using a curved band
pattern yields DT2.5, MET is 2.0, PT is 2.5, FT based on the DT. Intensity is
analysed at 30 knots based on Ascat pass, and consistent with Dvorak analysis.
04U is located in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, with good upper
level outflow on the southern flank. Conditions are expected to be at least
moderately favourable for further development for the next 36 hours, as the
system is steered slowly south by a mid-level ridge to the northeast.
Beyond this time, deep layer wind shear will increase as system approaches
strong upper level westerlies south of latitude 15 degrees south. There is some
uncertainty in the prognosis, but the most likely outcome is that lower level
steering influences will dominate as the system becomes sheared, and the system
will be steered westward as it weakens and becomes a shallower vortex.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0127 UTC 02/12/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 154.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [192 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 02/0600: 13.9S 154.0E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1001
+12: 02/1200: 14.1S 154.0E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001
+18: 02/1800: 14.3S 153.9E: 065 [125]: 040 [075]: 998
+24: 03/0000: 14.5S 153.7E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 992
+36: 03/1200: 14.6S 153.6E: 100 [180]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 04/0000: 14.8S 153.5E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 996
+60: 04/1200: 14.7S 153.3E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 1001
+72: 05/0000: 14.9S 152.8E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 1004
+96: 06/0000: 14.9S 152.2E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1004
+120: 07/0000: 15.0S 152.0E: 290 [535]: 030 [055]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical low 04U has become steadily more organised during the past 24 hours.
Convection has consolidated closer to the centre and curvature has improved. An
ASCAT pass at 23UTC continued to show a slightly elongated low level centre, but
more involved with the deep convection than 12 hours previously, with a swath of
30 knot winds in the southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis using a curved band
pattern yields DT2.5, MET is 2.0, PT is 2.5, FT based on the DT. Intensity is
analysed at 30 knots based on Ascat pass, and consistent with Dvorak analysis.
04U is located in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, with good upper
level outflow on the southern flank. Conditions are expected to be at least
moderately favourable for further development for the next 36 hours, as the
system is steered slowly south by a mid-level ridge to the northeast.
Beyond this time, deep layer wind shear will increase as system approaches
strong upper level westerlies south of latitude 15 degrees south. There is some
uncertainty in the prognosis, but the most likely outcome is that lower level
steering influences will dominate as the system becomes sheared, and the system
will be steered westward as it weakens and becomes a shallower vortex.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
At 2pm AEST, a developing tropical low was currently located over the northern Coral Sea, approximately 500km east to northeast of Willis Island. The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone later this afternoon or evening while shifting south to southwest.
This system poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast, and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later in the week.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:
High
Tuesday:
High
Wednesday:
Moderate
This system poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast, and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later in the week.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:
High
Tuesday:
High
Wednesday:
Moderate
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