中国:永暑礁 - 地理空间情报图解

2015年9月: With external reclamation efforts largely completed around the perimeter of the island, large-scale construction is observed at the center of the island. Permanent structures are initiated in various locations.

2015年10月: The initial efforts surrounding permanent structures to the north of the deep-water port are observed. Runway finalization efforts are underway and the surface could likely support aircraft for emergency landings, should the need arise. Additional airfield infrastructure (Air Traffic Control, communication, fuel, weapons storage/handling, recovery and emergency services, etc.) will be required before Fiery Cross Reef Airfield can be declared operational.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:24:00 +0800 CST  
2015年11月及2015年12月:(原文作者上传了此图,但原文中没有采用。)


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:25:00 +0800 CST  
December 2015: Permanent structures are established that lend credence to assessments of probable living areas/dormitories. Multistory structures are observed southwest of the deep-water port and a recreation area is several hundred feet southwest of the buildings. The recreation area is equipped with an Olympic-standard eight-lane outdoor track, four basketball courts and two tennis courts. It is likely that the bulk of PLAN, PLANAF, and PLAAF personnel stationed at Fiery Cross Reef will live in these dormitory facilities.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:26:00 +0800 CST  
December 2015: Surveillance and communication radars are observed at various stages of construction. On the northwest side of he island, several radomes are observed near the runway. On the southeast side of the island near the original UNESCO structure, a radar structure is still under construction.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:27:00 +0800 CST  
2016年1月: Grass textures can be observed surrounding the runway–likely to provide visual contrast between usable and unusable areas of the runway for inbound pilots.

2016年4月: The establishment of a permanent roadway system is ongoing, but largely established. Efforts to establish permanent structures continue near the center of the island.6


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:29:00 +0800 CST  
2016年5月: A decrease in vessels in the deep-water port is observed on 1 May 2016.

2016年6月: An increase in vessels in the deep-water port is observed since May 2016. Three hexagonal structures are observed on imagery at various locations around the island.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:30:00 +0800 CST  
June 2016: Three hexagonal-shaped structures are observed in various locations around Fiery Cross Reef in June 2016 imagery. In all three instances, the structures are less than ~200ft from the surrounding water. The purpose of these structures is uncertain, however Vetted Intelligence contributors assess that they are likely for offensive/defensive weapon employment.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:32:00 +0800 CST  
2016年9月:(原文作者上传了此图,但原文中没有采用。)


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:32:00 +0800 CST  
六角形建筑: The three hexagonal structures observed on Fiery Cross are similar to the structures found in imagery of Subi Reef and Mischief Reef–the two other PRC airfield/deep-water port island reclamation efforts in the Spratly Islands. Although the exact purpose of these structures is yet to be assessed in Open Source outlets, it is likely that they will be utilized in an offensive or defensive role–supporting either air defense missiles or offensive ballistic missile-type weaponry. The structures initially appear similar to the US AEGIS Ashore System, which utilizes a land-based variant of the AEGIS target intercept radar, the AN/SPY-1 radar, and Standard Missile type (SM-3) missiles. It is possible that the PLA may be pursuing a capability to utilize their AEGIS-equivalent, LUYYANG II/III DDG, air defense radars/weapons in a similar capacity. Alternatively, this system could be an entirely new air-defense system specifically designed for South China Sea integration and not for integration on mainland China. It is also possible, though less likely, that these structures will serve as offensive missile delivery platforms for use of the CSS-series close-range or intermediate-range surface-to-surface missiles–to threaten existing Vietnamese, Philippine, Malaysian, Brunei and Indonesian outposts in the Spratly Island chain.

楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:34:00 +0800 CST  
June 2016: With hangar construction nearly complete, dimensional analysis of the hangar structures reveals PLAAF/PLANAF airframe compatibility. In total, it is assessed that the PLAAF/PLANAF could shelter approximately 23-24 Fighter/Fighter-Bomber airframes, 2-3 medium bombers, and 1 heavy transport or Airborne Early Warning aircraft. Image courtesy of DigiGlobe and CSIS/AMTI.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:38:00 +0800 CST  
The most likely candidates for aircraft transiting to Fiery Cross Reef in the future. Fighters:J-11/Su-30MKK/MK2 FLANKER or JH-7 FLOUNDER. Airlift: Y-20 Kunpeng or Y-8 Series. AEW: KJ-2000 MAINRING or Y-8 ISR variants. Bomber:H-6BADGER.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:39:00 +0800 CST  
这段英文有敏感词,度娘不给发,晕了

楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:42:00 +0800 CST  
2014年8月至2016年8月: Happy Second Birthday, Fiery Cross Reef! In just over 700 days, Fiery Cross Reef has emerged as the premier airfield and deep-water naval port within the Spratly Islands and, with the exception of the PRC’s Woody Island Airfield 400NM north of Fiery Cross, the entire South China Sea. Until 2016, China was the only claimant of islands in the Spratly Islands that did not own an airfield in the region–Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei have, at least, modest runways in the Spratly Islands. As of 2016, the PRC now owns approximately three ~10,000ft runways in he Spratly Islands and is also pursuing a power-projection capability using the PLAN Liaoning Aircraft Carrier, which will conduct extended deployments to the South China Sea in the future. From its early beginnings as a tiny UNESCO marine outpost in 1998 to the intimidating power-projection behemoth that it is as of September 2016–the PRC has set the standard for expedient and effective island reclamation, one grain of wet sediment at a time.


楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:45:00 +0800 CST  
Future Outlook

It is likely that China will initially display their ability to assert large-scale persistent military presence at Fiery Cross Reef using PLAN assets. There are far fewer concerns and logistical hurdles for PRC naval assets to transit to Fiery Cross, as the PLAN already patrols these areas regularly, than there are with deploying aircraft to the southern reaches of the South China Sea. The near-term future will likely demonstrate extended deployments of PLAN surface warfare vessels such as the LUYANG-series or LUZHOU, escorted by a variety of supporting vessels. In the mid-to-long term, expect the LIAONING aircraft carrier will conduct port visits at Fiery Cross, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef as part of a grand display of power projection during an upcoming extended area deployment to the South China Sea. It is currently unknown as to the intent behind Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef in regards to the stationing of military equipment and personnel. Fiery, Subi, and Mischief Reef could be used as permanent basing locations for PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF equipment and personnel, or–more likely– will be used as rotational deployment areas for PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF units and their equipment. The composition of the deployed units will likely vary over time in relation to the geopolitical climate–when increased presence and persistence is warranted due to perceived challenges of sovereignty, expect increased PRC presence in these areas.
It is likely that China will announce Fiery Cross Reef Airfield to be operational, along with Subi Reef and Mischief Reef, before the end of 2016. The PRC has already landed several small fixed-wing civilian and military aircraft on Fiery Cross beginning in January 2016. Once operational, it is likely that China will initially send small contingents of aircraft, in the realm of 2-4 bombers and/or 4-6 fighter/fighter-bomber aircraft, to Fiery Cross in order to publicly display their ability to respond in the region with persistent combat operations. Once Subi Reef and/or Mischief Reef are completed, they will provide aircraft at Fiery Cross Reef an emergency landing or divert location, allowing for an increased presence of aircraft at Fiery Cross and its Subi/Mischief neighbors. The extent of Fiery Cross Reef’s ability to project combat power will rely on the scale of PRC effort to establish permanent air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons storage and handling capability at these airfields, which has yet to be seen. Once a weaponry footprint is established, we can better understand the scale of anticipated rotational deployments of Chinese aircraft to Fiery Cross Reef.

No matter the intended scale, duration, or composition of China’s anticipated utilization of Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef, their message is loud and clear–China is the dominant power in the South China Sea and is willing to (literally) solidify their sovereignty over disputed islands –one grain of wet sediment at a time.

楼主 大唐物业cxp  发布于 2016-09-28 01:47:00 +0800 CST  

楼主:大唐物业cxp

字数:11872

发表时间:2016-09-27 20:14:00 +0800 CST

更新时间:2019-07-30 19:19:19 +0800 CST

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