中国：永暑礁 - 地理空间情报图解
转发论坛戒版
China: Fiery Cross Reef– A GEOINT Storyboard
中国：永暑礁 - 地理空间情报图解
All satellite images courtesy of DigiGlobe.
所有卫星影像由数字地球公司提供
这是海外的开源情报局（Open Source Intelligence， OSINT)发表的一份永暑岛填海建岛两年来的分析文章。
转发此文不意味着赞同或证实该文章的观点及推测，仅供各位参考。原文为英文。
六角形建筑: The three hexagonal structures observed on Fiery Cross are similar to the structures found in imagery of Subi Reef and Mischief Reef–the two other PRC airfield/deep-water port island reclamation efforts in the Spratly Islands. Although the exact purpose of these structures is yet to be assessed in Open Source outlets, it is likely that they will be utilized in an offensive or defensive role–supporting either air defense missiles or offensive ballistic missile-type weaponry. The structures initially appear similar to the US AEGIS Ashore System, which utilizes a land-based variant of the AEGIS target intercept radar, the AN/SPY-1 radar, and Standard Missile type (SM-3) missiles. It is possible that the PLA may be pursuing a capability to utilize their AEGIS-equivalent, LUYYANG II/III DDG, air defense radars/weapons in a similar capacity. Alternatively, this system could be an entirely new air-defense system specifically designed for South China Sea integration and not for integration on mainland China. It is also possible, though less likely, that these structures will serve as offensive missile delivery platforms for use of the CSS-series close-range or intermediate-range surface-to-surface missiles–to threaten existing Vietnamese, Philippine, Malaysian, Brunei and Indonesian outposts in the Spratly Island chain.
戒版译文，仅供参考：
六角形建筑：在永暑礁观察到的这三个六角形构造物与渚碧礁及美济礁--其他两个中华人民共和国在南沙填海工程中建造的具有机场/深水港的岛--的影像中发现的结构类似。虽然这些构造物的确切用途尚待开源情报点进行评估，它们很可能会用于进攻或防守角色，支持无论是防空导弹或进攻性弹道导弹型武器的使用。这些最初出现的构造物类似美国的宙斯盾岸上系统（AEGIS Ashore System），该系统采用了宙斯盾目标截获雷达，AN / SPY-1雷达的陆基变型和标准型导弹（SM-3）导弹。很有可能解放军在利用他们类似宙斯盾，旅洋 II / III驱逐舰，防空雷达/武器追求类似的能力。另外，该系统可能是专为中国南海，而不是中国大陆而整合的一种全新设计的防空系统。也有可能，尽管可能性不大，这些构造物或将作为进攻性导弹运载平台，使用CSS系列近程或中程地对空导弹，威慑现有的越南，菲律宾，马来西亚，文莱和印尼在南沙群岛链的前哨基地。
China: Fiery Cross Reef– A GEOINT Storyboard
中国：永暑礁 - 地理空间情报图解
All satellite images courtesy of DigiGlobe.
所有卫星影像由数字地球公司提供
这是海外的开源情报局（Open Source Intelligence， OSINT)发表的一份永暑岛填海建岛两年来的分析文章。
转发此文不意味着赞同或证实该文章的观点及推测，仅供各位参考。原文为英文。
六角形建筑: The three hexagonal structures observed on Fiery Cross are similar to the structures found in imagery of Subi Reef and Mischief Reef–the two other PRC airfield/deep-water port island reclamation efforts in the Spratly Islands. Although the exact purpose of these structures is yet to be assessed in Open Source outlets, it is likely that they will be utilized in an offensive or defensive role–supporting either air defense missiles or offensive ballistic missile-type weaponry. The structures initially appear similar to the US AEGIS Ashore System, which utilizes a land-based variant of the AEGIS target intercept radar, the AN/SPY-1 radar, and Standard Missile type (SM-3) missiles. It is possible that the PLA may be pursuing a capability to utilize their AEGIS-equivalent, LUYYANG II/III DDG, air defense radars/weapons in a similar capacity. Alternatively, this system could be an entirely new air-defense system specifically designed for South China Sea integration and not for integration on mainland China. It is also possible, though less likely, that these structures will serve as offensive missile delivery platforms for use of the CSS-series close-range or intermediate-range surface-to-surface missiles–to threaten existing Vietnamese, Philippine, Malaysian, Brunei and Indonesian outposts in the Spratly Island chain.
戒版译文，仅供参考：
六角形建筑：在永暑礁观察到的这三个六角形构造物与渚碧礁及美济礁--其他两个中华人民共和国在南沙填海工程中建造的具有机场/深水港的岛--的影像中发现的结构类似。虽然这些构造物的确切用途尚待开源情报点进行评估，它们很可能会用于进攻或防守角色，支持无论是防空导弹或进攻性弹道导弹型武器的使用。这些最初出现的构造物类似美国的宙斯盾岸上系统（AEGIS Ashore System），该系统采用了宙斯盾目标截获雷达，AN / SPY-1雷达的陆基变型和标准型导弹（SM-3）导弹。很有可能解放军在利用他们类似宙斯盾，旅洋 II / III驱逐舰，防空雷达/武器追求类似的能力。另外，该系统可能是专为中国南海，而不是中国大陆而整合的一种全新设计的防空系统。也有可能，尽管可能性不大，这些构造物或将作为进攻性导弹运载平台，使用CSS系列近程或中程地对空导弹，威慑现有的越南，菲律宾，马来西亚，文莱和印尼在南沙群岛链的前哨基地。
2016年6月：从2016年五月以来深水港口的船只在增加，在图像上在环岛的各个不同位置观察到三个六角形结构物。
2016年6月：在2016年6月的影像上围绕永暑岛的不同地点观测到三个六边形构造物。在所有三个构造物中，构造物均距岸线小于约200英尺。这些构造物的用途尚不明确，但是据本情报局的合作者评估，它们很可能是用于布置进攻/防御武器。
2016年6月：在2016年6月的影像上围绕永暑岛的不同地点观测到三个六边形构造物。在所有三个构造物中，构造物均距岸线小于约200英尺。这些构造物的用途尚不明确，但是据本情报局的合作者评估，它们很可能是用于布置进攻/防御武器。
原英文：2016年6月: An increase in vessels in the deep-water port is observed since May 2016. Three hexagonal structures are observed on imagery at various locations around the island.
June 2016: Three hexagonal-shaped structures are observed in various locations around Fiery Cross Reef in June 2016 imagery. In all three instances, the structures are less than ~200ft from the surrounding water. The purpose of these structures is uncertain, however Vetted Intelligence contributors assess that they are likely for offensive/defensive weapon employment.
June 2016: Three hexagonal-shaped structures are observed in various locations around Fiery Cross Reef in June 2016 imagery. In all three instances, the structures are less than ~200ft from the surrounding water. The purpose of these structures is uncertain, however Vetted Intelligence contributors assess that they are likely for offensive/defensive weapon employment.
China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei have disputed and overlapping claims to the Spratly Islands. Until 2016, China was the only Spratly-claimant that did not own an airfield in the southern reaches of the South China Sea.
Bottom Line Up Front
In August 2014, the Peoples Republic of China initiated efforts to conduct large-scale expansion of existing marine outpost in the Spratly Island Chain of the South China Sea. In only two years, China has reclaimed approximately 3,000 acres of land in the Spratly Islands and their three newest airfields and deep-water naval ports in the southern island chain (Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef) are nearing operational status. Utilizing commercially-available Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT), this article will analyze the rapid and sprawling expansion of Fiery Cross Reef from its modest beginning to its grand finalization.
In August 2014, the Peoples Republic of China initiated efforts to conduct large-scale expansion of existing marine outpost in the Spratly Island Chain of the South China Sea. In only two years, China has reclaimed approximately 3,000 acres of land in the Spratly Islands and their three newest airfields and deep-water naval ports in the southern island chain (Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef) are nearing operational status. Utilizing commercially-available Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT), this article will analyze the rapid and sprawling expansion of Fiery Cross Reef from its modest beginning to its grand finalization.
Historical Context
Fiery Cross Reef, named after a British tea clipper lost near the reef in 1860, has been occupied by the PRC since 1988 when the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) built a small observation station on the reef. Initially, Fiery Cross Reef was just large enough to support a nursery, modest living facilities, radar equipment, and a dual-use basketball court/helipad. Throughout the 1990’s and 2000’s, China experienced a multitude of maritime skirmishes with Vietnam and Philippine civilian and military entities over disputed territories in the South China Sea–primarily revolving around fishing hotspots and asserting sovereignty of territorial claims. In present day, it is common for People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to conduct airborne power projection patrols using fighter/bomber aircraft and maritime power projection patrols from the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the South China Sea. As power projection became increasingly important and symbolic for asserting sovereignty over disputed claims in the South China Sea arena, as did the requirement to establish permanent military presence in the disputed areas–hence, the multinational race for occupation and militarization of existing occupied islands began.!
Initial UNESCO structure established at Fiery Cross Reef in 1988
Fiery Cross Reef, named after a British tea clipper lost near the reef in 1860, has been occupied by the PRC since 1988 when the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) built a small observation station on the reef. Initially, Fiery Cross Reef was just large enough to support a nursery, modest living facilities, radar equipment, and a dual-use basketball court/helipad. Throughout the 1990’s and 2000’s, China experienced a multitude of maritime skirmishes with Vietnam and Philippine civilian and military entities over disputed territories in the South China Sea–primarily revolving around fishing hotspots and asserting sovereignty of territorial claims. In present day, it is common for People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to conduct airborne power projection patrols using fighter/bomber aircraft and maritime power projection patrols from the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the South China Sea. As power projection became increasingly important and symbolic for asserting sovereignty over disputed claims in the South China Sea arena, as did the requirement to establish permanent military presence in the disputed areas–hence, the multinational race for occupation and militarization of existing occupied islands began.!
Initial UNESCO structure established at Fiery Cross Reef in 1988
Although China has devoted efforts to expansion and construction on all eight of their claimed outposts in the Spratly Island chain, only three of the reefs were determined to be worthy candidates for large-scale expansion based on their ability to support deep-water naval ports and ~10,000ft runways–Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef.
2014: Construction Begins on Fiery Cross
2014：永暑开始建设
In August 2014, PRC-owned dredging ships descended on the Spratly Islands in force. A dredging vessel is a specialized excavation vessel that removes sediments from the bottom of shallow watered areas and replaces the sediment in another location–in the Case of Fiery Cross, on top a reef to create habitable land.
Island Building 101: Dredging vessels are specialized pieces of excavation equipment that remove sediments from the bottom of shallow water areas and moves the sediment to another location.
2014：永暑开始建设
In August 2014, PRC-owned dredging ships descended on the Spratly Islands in force. A dredging vessel is a specialized excavation vessel that removes sediments from the bottom of shallow watered areas and replaces the sediment in another location–in the Case of Fiery Cross, on top a reef to create habitable land.
Island Building 101: Dredging vessels are specialized pieces of excavation equipment that remove sediments from the bottom of shallow water areas and moves the sediment to another location.
February 2014: This graphic depicts the original UNESCO structure established in 1988 and the sprawling reef that is yet to be exploited for inhabitable building area. The finalized Fiery Cross Reef Airfield will very closely resemble the shape of the original reef.
2014年8月: Initial reclamation efforts are swift and aggressive, beginning in the northeast portion of the reef. Dredging ship presence is modest in the early stages of reclamation.
2014年10月: Initial reclamation efforts are observed extending southwest along the western limits of the reef.
2014年11月: Most of the initial west-side reclamation is completed and efforts are extended south to meet with the original UNESCO structure established in 1988. By November 2014, the shape of the deep-water port on the northeast part of the reef has been established with only small areas of shallow reef waters observed. Dredging vessel presence is abundant in the deep-water port. Dredging hoses run from the deep-water port along the length of the island to facilitate simultaneous reclamation and port-deepening operations.
2014年10月: Initial reclamation efforts are observed extending southwest along the western limits of the reef.
2014年11月: Most of the initial west-side reclamation is completed and efforts are extended south to meet with the original UNESCO structure established in 1988. By November 2014, the shape of the deep-water port on the northeast part of the reef has been established with only small areas of shallow reef waters observed. Dredging vessel presence is abundant in the deep-water port. Dredging hoses run from the deep-water port along the length of the island to facilitate simultaneous reclamation and port-deepening operations.
2014年12月: Southwest reclamation has extended far enough to meet with the original UNESCO structure. Efforts continue to deepen the port and remove remaining shallow-water reef.
December 2014: Dredging lines can be observed extending from the dredging ships onto land. Docking locations are established on the north-side of the port to facilitate material/equipment delivery to the island.
December 2014: Dredging lines can be observed extending from the dredging ships onto land. Docking locations are established on the north-side of the port to facilitate material/equipment delivery to the island.
December 2014: The bulk of reclamation efforts are observed on the southern portion of the island to reclaim the shallow-water unfinished reef sections. Efforts begin on the southwest portion of the island to clear an area for the ~10,000ft runway/taxiway that will eventually stretch southwest to northeast along the western coast of the island.
2015年1月: Reclamation efforts are weighted around the center of the island, extending southwest to southeast to reclaim the remaining watered areas extending to the east side of the island.
2015年2月: Reclamation efforts around the perimeter of the island are largely complete. A “lake” has been formed at the center of the island.
2015年3月: Reclamation efforts are weighted around removing the “lake” that has been formed in the center of the island. Dredger presence in the deep-water port remains stable.
2015年4月: Most of the “lake” in the center of the island has been removed, minimal reclamation efforts remain at the center of the island. Decreased dredger presence can be observed from imagery within the deep-water port on 18 April 2015.
2015年2月: Reclamation efforts around the perimeter of the island are largely complete. A “lake” has been formed at the center of the island.
2015年3月: Reclamation efforts are weighted around removing the “lake” that has been formed in the center of the island. Dredger presence in the deep-water port remains stable.
2015年4月: Most of the “lake” in the center of the island has been removed, minimal reclamation efforts remain at the center of the island. Decreased dredger presence can be observed from imagery within the deep-water port on 18 April 2015.
April 2015: Runway/Taxiway grading and paving is observed. Approximately 3,000ft of runway length is graded. The runway has been separated into sections in length and is being completed in stages.
April 2015: A temporary jetty is established and a temporary port area is deepened to facilitate small shipping vessels to deliver building materials/equipment at the northwest corner of the island. Docking locations inside of the deep-water port are regularly being by vessels carrying sediment and building materials/equipment.
April 2015: Minimal areas of water remain near the center of he island and the eastern wall of the deep-water port.
2014年8月至2015年8月: Happy First Birthday, Fiery Cross Reef! In approximately 365 days, the PRC has established ~95% of the outlying shape of the future outpost and graded/paved the majority of a runway structure on the northwest side of the island. The deep-water port is operational and supporting various types of ships daily. Thus far, only minimal permanent structures are observed but the material and equipment infrastructure for large-scale construction efforts can be observed at various locations across the island.
August 2015: The first of the permanent structures can be observed. The PRC is initially constructing probable living facilities southwest of the deep-water port and large hangars on the southeast end of the runway.