【译•美国】美国媒体：中国恐惧像苏联一样消失
二十五年前，强大的苏联终于被扔进了历史的垃圾堆——而且再也不会死灰复燃了。然而我们常常忘记这个人类历史上最强大的帝国之一的倒塌从来不是一件确定的事。事实上，在苏联解体十年前，即1981年，几乎没人预见到苏联解体。大部分人都觉得是美国要在接下来的一段时间里经历困难。随便一份来自那个时代的粗略调查都显示美国正挣扎着解决根深蒂固的问题：苏联在所有的领域向美国发起挑战，而美国经济一片混乱，整个国家还在从越南战争的阴影和尼克松总统辞职的风波中走出来。冲击持续来临——一次看起来没有尽头的危机，而且是感觉上真正意义的“信任危机”。
人们确实可以提出强有力的论点来证明北京领导人-他们肯定在为经济现状以及美国向亚太的战略东移绞尽脑汁-在追问之下，肯定承认他们害怕像前苏联那样的结局 但是，从我最近几年在亚洲各地旅行、参加各种会议、聚会所收集的信息表明，中国官员很清楚地意识到他们完全可以避免前苏联那样的结局。他们也害怕手中的权力将来可能会被剥夺-由于腐败、穷兵黩武、政治瘫痪、社会分裂等等。
评论翻译：
Elvis • 2 days ago
It's hard to predict the future, history has often surprised us. Approximately 600 years ago, the future seem to belong to China as the great Ming armadas went out and then China turned inward.
Go further back and while the Europeans were fighting a losing battle to keep the Crusader states in the Levant alive, the Chinese under the Song looked to be on the verge of the Industrial Revolution which due to a variety of reasons including the Mongol conquest did not happen.
Who would have thought centuries ago, that the British would supersede the Spanish as the global power. Likewise that Constantinople would repel the Arabs twice, or that the Franks would do their part in the west against the Moors. Not to mention the Athenians defeating the Persians at Salamis. We can go on and on.
I doubt that the People's Republic of China will fall, in fact I would say that odds are that China under the reign of the CCP will be one of the most important powers if not the most important power of the 21st century. Then again, most of us would say that the United States will not only continue to be a superpower but many of my fellow Americans are likewise convinced that this century will be an American century.
未来是难以预测的，历史的走向往往使我们感到惊讶。大约600年前，未来因大明舰队的开放性（远征），看起来似乎是属于中国的时代，然而中国却转向了自己的内部事务。
再继续往前回溯，当欧洲人在那场为了让十字军国家在地中海东部得以苟延残喘的战争中打了败仗的时候，宋朝已经出现了工业革命的萌芽，只是出于被蒙古征服等各种各样的原因而没有发展下去。
几百年前谁又会想到，英国将取代西班牙成为世界霸主。同样没人认为君士坦丁堡能两次击退阿拉伯人，或者法兰克人能够在摩尔人的西方与他们对抗。更不用说雅典人居然在萨拉米斯打败了波斯人。类似的例子还有很多。
我怀疑中国是否会倒下，事实上，我会说，TG统治下的中国将是二十一世纪最重要的力量、或者至少也是最重要的力量之一。正如我们中的大多数人都会说，美国不仅仅只是继续作为一个超级大国一样，许多美国同胞也同样坚信本世纪依然将是美国的世纪。
Elvis • 2 days ago
It's hard to predict the future, history has often surprised us. Approximately 600 years ago, the future seem to belong to China as the great Ming armadas went out and then China turned inward.
Go further back and while the Europeans were fighting a losing battle to keep the Crusader states in the Levant alive, the Chinese under the Song looked to be on the verge of the Industrial Revolution which due to a variety of reasons including the Mongol conquest did not happen.
Who would have thought centuries ago, that the British would supersede the Spanish as the global power. Likewise that Constantinople would repel the Arabs twice, or that the Franks would do their part in the west against the Moors. Not to mention the Athenians defeating the Persians at Salamis. We can go on and on.
I doubt that the People's Republic of China will fall, in fact I would say that odds are that China under the reign of the CCP will be one of the most important powers if not the most important power of the 21st century. Then again, most of us would say that the United States will not only continue to be a superpower but many of my fellow Americans are likewise convinced that this century will be an American century.
未来是难以预测的，历史的走向往往使我们感到惊讶。大约600年前，未来因大明舰队的开放性（远征），看起来似乎是属于中国的时代，然而中国却转向了自己的内部事务。
再继续往前回溯，当欧洲人在那场为了让十字军国家在地中海东部得以苟延残喘的战争中打了败仗的时候，宋朝已经出现了工业革命的萌芽，只是出于被蒙古征服等各种各样的原因而没有发展下去。
几百年前谁又会想到，英国将取代西班牙成为世界霸主。同样没人认为君士坦丁堡能两次击退阿拉伯人，或者法兰克人能够在摩尔人的西方与他们对抗。更不用说雅典人居然在萨拉米斯打败了波斯人。类似的例子还有很多。
我怀疑中国是否会倒下，事实上，我会说，TG统治下的中国将是二十一世纪最重要的力量、或者至少也是最重要的力量之一。正如我们中的大多数人都会说，美国不仅仅只是继续作为一个超级大国一样，许多美国同胞也同样坚信本世纪依然将是美国的世纪。
Thought there is room for collapse, if there was some mass event of the wrong circumstances. All the major powers have large economic problems that could trigger a collapse.
但确实存在一些因为大规模事件而导致崩溃的情况。所有这些大国都存在可引发崩溃的重大经济问题。
Russia has the problem of oil and sanctions.
俄罗斯有石油和制裁问题。
China has the problem of all weird shadow-dealings its government has done to keep its economy afloat. Like just building giant empty towns.
中国有该国政府为浮夸经济而做的所有古怪的影子政策。比如兴建鬼城。
但确实存在一些因为大规模事件而导致崩溃的情况。所有这些大国都存在可引发崩溃的重大经济问题。
Russia has the problem of oil and sanctions.
俄罗斯有石油和制裁问题。
China has the problem of all weird shadow-dealings its government has done to keep its economy afloat. Like just building giant empty towns.
中国有该国政府为浮夸经济而做的所有古怪的影子政策。比如兴建鬼城。
USA is dependent on the petrodollar and world reserve currency.
美国依赖于石油美元和（美元的）世界储备流通。
Serge Krieger Elvis • 2 days ago
Excellent post. All predictions is BS. Nobody knows what the future holds. But, Russia and China have tendency to come back from the brink and US has yet to prove it can come back after bad reversal as she has not had one. It is only coming.
说得对。所有的预测都是胡扯。没有人知道未来会是什么样的。但是俄罗斯和中国都具备从危险边缘折返的能力，但是美国还没证明自己有这方面的能力，因为美国还没经历过糟糕的境况。
Karl Pershing CCD • a day ago
Kissinger under Nixon made China into what it is today. Big mistake.
尼克松领导下的基辛格让中国成为了今天的中国。这是个大错误。
CCD Karl Pershing • a day ago
I do not think it was a mistake to improve US relations with China. Deng Xiaoping reformed the economic system and that would have happened regardless. Perhaps without cooperation from the US (like most favored nation trading status) it would have been more difficult. However, it would have happened anyway. Other countries in the World and especially in Asia were going to trade with China no matter what the US did.
我不认为提高美国与中国的关系是个错误。无论如何，邓小平一定会改革中国经济体系。如果没有美国的合作（比如最惠国贸易地位），中国的经济改革会变得更困难——然而，改革依旧会发生。不论美国的态度怎样，世界上的其他国家，特别是亚洲国家一定会继续和中国进行贸易往来。
美国依赖于石油美元和（美元的）世界储备流通。
Serge Krieger Elvis • 2 days ago
Excellent post. All predictions is BS. Nobody knows what the future holds. But, Russia and China have tendency to come back from the brink and US has yet to prove it can come back after bad reversal as she has not had one. It is only coming.
说得对。所有的预测都是胡扯。没有人知道未来会是什么样的。但是俄罗斯和中国都具备从危险边缘折返的能力，但是美国还没证明自己有这方面的能力，因为美国还没经历过糟糕的境况。
Karl Pershing CCD • a day ago
Kissinger under Nixon made China into what it is today. Big mistake.
尼克松领导下的基辛格让中国成为了今天的中国。这是个大错误。
CCD Karl Pershing • a day ago
I do not think it was a mistake to improve US relations with China. Deng Xiaoping reformed the economic system and that would have happened regardless. Perhaps without cooperation from the US (like most favored nation trading status) it would have been more difficult. However, it would have happened anyway. Other countries in the World and especially in Asia were going to trade with China no matter what the US did.
我不认为提高美国与中国的关系是个错误。无论如何，邓小平一定会改革中国经济体系。如果没有美国的合作（比如最惠国贸易地位），中国的经济改革会变得更困难——然而，改革依旧会发生。不论美国的态度怎样，世界上的其他国家，特别是亚洲国家一定会继续和中国进行贸易往来。
Karl Pershing CCD • a day ago
Yes but American manufacturing suffered because of it. Middle class jobs have left the US. It was the initiation of a national suicide.
是的，但美国的制造业因此受困，中产阶级的工作离开美国，这是一个国家自杀的开始。
CCD Karl Pershing • a day ago
This is a view that is old and no longer true. For one thing only 16% of the economy is manufacturing based. Manufacturing is not the key to economic prosperity. Look at Apple computer for example. All Apple products are made in China by workers making a tiny fraction of what US employees make. Apple is profitable and employees Americans as highly skilled engineers and managers. Apple makes the lion's share of the profit, while Foxcon the Taiwanese manufacture makes a small fraction. Who has the better end of this deal. Having manufacturing of Apple products in the US would make them far more expensive. There would be fewer high skilled jobs available (for a new workforce which is mostly college educated) and American investors - including pension funds and not just rich fat cats - would lose out as well.
Americans have moved on and adapted. Our University education system and health care system attract people from all over the world that come to use these services. Because this is a service being used in the US a Saudi spending money on the US health system or a Chinese paying for tuition at an American University has no effect on the trade numbers. And by the way jobs in health care and higher education are well paying. Low profit margin low skill manufacturing has been replaced with higher skill, higher profit margin industries. Hardly a sob story.
这个观点过时了，而且也不正确。首先，制造业只构成经济的16%，制造业不是经济繁荣的关键，以苹果为例。所有的苹果产品在中国生产，那里的工人只做了美国雇员做的一小部分，苹果是有利可图的，它会雇佣美国人作为高技能的工程师和管理人员，苹果占了大部分利润而富士康只占了一小部分，谁会受益更大？苹果产品在美国制造只会让它更昂贵，一部分的高技能工作（给接受过高等教育的劳动力的）和美国投资人---包括养老基金和不仅是有钱的大亨---都会受到损失。
美国人需要不断向前和适应，我们的教育和医疗系统吸引全世界的人到美国使用这些服务，因为这些服务是在美国使用的。因此阿拉伯人在美国医疗系统上开销或是中国人支付的美国大学教育费用不会对贸易数据有任何影响，顺便提下，医疗和高等教育上的工作薪酬是很高的。低利润、低技能的制造业会被高技能、高利润的产业代替。所以这算不上是个悲伤的故事
Vector Elvi
Yes but American manufacturing suffered because of it. Middle class jobs have left the US. It was the initiation of a national suicide.
是的，但美国的制造业因此受困，中产阶级的工作离开美国，这是一个国家自杀的开始。
CCD Karl Pershing • a day ago
This is a view that is old and no longer true. For one thing only 16% of the economy is manufacturing based. Manufacturing is not the key to economic prosperity. Look at Apple computer for example. All Apple products are made in China by workers making a tiny fraction of what US employees make. Apple is profitable and employees Americans as highly skilled engineers and managers. Apple makes the lion's share of the profit, while Foxcon the Taiwanese manufacture makes a small fraction. Who has the better end of this deal. Having manufacturing of Apple products in the US would make them far more expensive. There would be fewer high skilled jobs available (for a new workforce which is mostly college educated) and American investors - including pension funds and not just rich fat cats - would lose out as well.
Americans have moved on and adapted. Our University education system and health care system attract people from all over the world that come to use these services. Because this is a service being used in the US a Saudi spending money on the US health system or a Chinese paying for tuition at an American University has no effect on the trade numbers. And by the way jobs in health care and higher education are well paying. Low profit margin low skill manufacturing has been replaced with higher skill, higher profit margin industries. Hardly a sob story.
这个观点过时了，而且也不正确。首先，制造业只构成经济的16%，制造业不是经济繁荣的关键，以苹果为例。所有的苹果产品在中国生产，那里的工人只做了美国雇员做的一小部分，苹果是有利可图的，它会雇佣美国人作为高技能的工程师和管理人员，苹果占了大部分利润而富士康只占了一小部分，谁会受益更大？苹果产品在美国制造只会让它更昂贵，一部分的高技能工作（给接受过高等教育的劳动力的）和美国投资人---包括养老基金和不仅是有钱的大亨---都会受到损失。
美国人需要不断向前和适应，我们的教育和医疗系统吸引全世界的人到美国使用这些服务，因为这些服务是在美国使用的。因此阿拉伯人在美国医疗系统上开销或是中国人支付的美国大学教育费用不会对贸易数据有任何影响，顺便提下，医疗和高等教育上的工作薪酬是很高的。低利润、低技能的制造业会被高技能、高利润的产业代替。所以这算不上是个悲伤的故事
Vector Elvi
Eagle Patrick • 4 hours ago
If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will drown in the river. -a wiser old man
如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会掉进河里 —— 一个睿智的老人说。（子在川上曰逝者如斯夫不舍昼夜）
Timur Elvis • 2 days ago
The Chinese is an avid reader of history: As soon as you declare that you are "exceptional" you are frozen in time and allowed other nations to catch on. But human beings are weak. We like to be on top. This lessons are learned again and again. Jesus taught us humility for a reason.
这部分翻译的不恰当。应为：中国人酷爱历史（意指中国人善于从历史中吸取经验教训）：一旦你宣称自己是‘’优异于”其他民族，你就会固步自封，就会被别的民族赶超。但是人是有弱点，都想成为老大。这些教训一再发生。耶稣教导人类谦卑是有道理的。
-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------
matimal Timur • 2 days ago
..at least the histories they can get their hands on. Many books are banned in china or not available in Chinese.
至少是他们能插手的历史记录。在中国，很多书被禁，或者根本买不到中文版。
Jerry Elvis • a day ago
Elvis, Very good post, its nice to have some "real history", that put things in their proper perspective, instead of a lot of ridiculous boasting & threatening based on ignorance.
Elvis ，好帖！ 有一些“真实的历史”， 这非常好，这样就能在更正确的角度看待它们，而不是荒谬的吹嘘和基于无知的威胁。
Morti Samuels Elvis • 2 days ago
Well spoken Thank You for history is what we need to learn from. This country is in very bad shape and the times are now more complicated??? More complicated yet less life threatening? Man will continue to destroy man
说的好，这就是我们应该从历史中学习的。中国现在的情况非常糟糕，而现在的时代变得更加复杂了？时代越复杂生命受到的威胁会更少？人类会继续自我毁灭的。
If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will drown in the river. -a wiser old man
如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会掉进河里 —— 一个睿智的老人说。（子在川上曰逝者如斯夫不舍昼夜
）Timur Elvis • 2 days ago
The Chinese is an avid reader of history: As soon as you declare that you are "exceptional" you are frozen in time and allowed other nations to catch on. But human beings are weak. We like to be on top. This lessons are learned again and again. Jesus taught us humility for a reason.
这部分翻译的不恰当。应为：中国人酷爱历史（意指中国人善于从历史中吸取经验教训）：一旦你宣称自己是‘’优异于”其他民族，你就会固步自封，就会被别的民族赶超。但是人是有弱点，都想成为老大。这些教训一再发生。耶稣教导人类谦卑是有道理的。
-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------
matimal Timur • 2 days ago
..at least the histories they can get their hands on. Many books are banned in china or not available in Chinese.
至少是他们能插手的历史记录。在中国，很多书被禁，或者根本买不到中文版。
Jerry Elvis • a day ago
Elvis, Very good post, its nice to have some "real history", that put things in their proper perspective, instead of a lot of ridiculous boasting & threatening based on ignorance.
Elvis ，好帖！ 有一些“真实的历史”， 这非常好，这样就能在更正确的角度看待它们，而不是荒谬的吹嘘和基于无知的威胁。
Morti Samuels Elvis • 2 days ago
Well spoken Thank You for history is what we need to learn from. This country is in very bad shape and the times are now more complicated??? More complicated yet less life threatening? Man will continue to destroy man
说的好，这就是我们应该从历史中学习的。中国现在的情况非常糟糕，而现在的时代变得更加复杂了？时代越复杂生命受到的威胁会更少？人类会继续自我毁灭的。
Vector Elvis • 2 days ago
In truth, all China needs to do is wait, EU and USA PC elites are doing all they can to destroy their countries.
事实上，中国所有需要做的就是等待，欧盟和美国的PC精英们（键盘侠）竭尽所能破坏他们的国家。
Patrick Vector • 2 days ago
What is that old saying from some wise Chinese man. "If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will see the bodies of your enemy float by"
某个古代中国智者说什么来着：“如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会看到你敌人尸体浮过来。”（这个可能是 子在川上曰 逝者如斯夫，不过能理解成这样，我也是醉了。而且版本貌似还很多）
In truth, all China needs to do is wait, EU and USA PC elites are doing all they can to destroy their countries.
事实上，中国所有需要做的就是等待，欧盟和美国的PC精英们（键盘侠）竭尽所能破坏他们的国家。
Patrick Vector • 2 days ago
What is that old saying from some wise Chinese man. "If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will see the bodies of your enemy float by"
某个古代中国智者说什么来着：“如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会看到你敌人尸体浮过来。”（这个可能是 子在川上曰 逝者如斯夫，不过能理解成这样，我也是醉了。而且版本貌似还很多
）