【讨论飓风】北大西洋飓风AL072017
...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 6
Location: 16.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 6
Location: 16.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
依据云图形态判定闭合，北侧浮标测到1min 35kt，从而升格TS.
还有24小时登陆尤卡坦半岛，之后进入坎佩切湾并有36小时的加强时间，NHC在72-96h之间上望飓风。全球模型和多数飓风模型都认为巅峰在TS上限到飓风下限。
INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
还有24小时登陆尤卡坦半岛，之后进入坎佩切湾并有36小时的加强时间，NHC在72-96h之间上望飓风。全球模型和多数飓风模型都认为巅峰在TS上限到飓风下限。
INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
实测汇总：
850mb FL 62kt
SFMR 53kt
DROP 56kt
气压drop测得995mb.
NHC 00z：50kt 995mb
850mb FL 62kt
SFMR 53kt
DROP 56kt
气压drop测得995mb.
NHC 00z：50kt 995mb
出海后的加强速度不错，最新实测700mb FL 65kt；SFMR 55kt，投落仪测得996mb/23kt，推估中心气压994mb.
052630 2050N 09137W 6961 03147 0045 +092 -012 134040 042 055 009 00
052800 2054N 09134W 6971 03139 0097 +057 -018 111057 065 050 017 03
052630 2050N 09137W 6961 03147 0045 +092 -012 134040 042 055 009 00
052800 2054N 09134W 6971 03139 0097 +057 -018 111057 065 050 017 03
最新实测850FL 89kt；SFMR 78kt，NHC提升强度至75kt.
233130 2036N 09507W 8420 01431 9946 +145 +091 151086 089 071 007 00
233430 2030N 09514W 8430 01387 9874 +209 +088 137051 056 078 001 00
233130 2036N 09507W 8420 01431 9946 +145 +091 151086 089 071 007 00
233430 2030N 09514W 8430 01387 9874 +209 +088 137051 056 078 001 00
刚刚测到SFMR 80kt，然而底层已经被轻度切离，加强停止。最近的一次穿心气压已从00z的981上升至985
021100 2018N 09549W 6959 03043 //// +125 //// 144037 041 080 003 01
021100 2018N 09549W 6959 03043 //// +125 //// 144037 041 080 003 01
地面环流已经消散，中层环流进入东太后可能再次诱生底层环流，并可能发展成旋。机制类似于去年Earl->Javier，但由于这次位置偏北，发展空间要小的多。
Since the mid-level remnants of Franklin are likely to survive while moving into the east Pacific by Friday morning, the system will be monitored for signs of development in that basin.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system may occur before it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive environment Sunday, or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Since the mid-level remnants of Franklin are likely to survive while moving into the east Pacific by Friday morning, the system will be monitored for signs of development in that basin.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system may occur before it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive environment Sunday, or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.