【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH142020
旋风蓝色预警
10:00 AM - Cyclone BLUE ALERT for people in or near Port Hedland to Mardie, including the Town of Port Hedland, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica in the Pilbara, Kimberley
10:00 AM - Cyclone BLUE ALERT for people in or near Port Hedland to Mardie, including the Town of Port Hedland, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica in the Pilbara, Kimberley
求求你们不要一上来就说一个刚生成的系统冕啊婊啊。
假如真是这样，全球就没有脱水的气旋了。
希望如果还有人这样说的话，希望吧务直接将其删帖+封禁处理。
烦死了
假如真是这样，全球就没有脱水的气旋了。
希望如果还有人这样说的话，希望吧务直接将其删帖+封禁处理。
烦死了
命名Damien
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South 119.8 degrees East, estimated to be 400 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 kilometres west northwest of Broome.
Movement: west at 15 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone should continue to track to the west southwest and develop further and turn south towards the Pilbara coast on Friday. A severe tropical cyclone impact is forecast for the Pilbara coast during Saturday.
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South 119.8 degrees East, estimated to be 400 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 kilometres west northwest of Broome.
Movement: west at 15 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone should continue to track to the west southwest and develop further and turn south towards the Pilbara coast on Friday. A severe tropical cyclone impact is forecast for the Pilbara coast during Saturday.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Damien was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal nine south (16.9S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal eight east (119.8E)
Recent movement : west at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 0600 UTC 07
February.
From 0600 UTC 7 February winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of
centre with very high seas.
From 1800 UTC 6 February winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of
centre with very rough to high seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and low to
moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.4 south 118.2 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 07 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 18.0 south 117.3 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to [email protected] or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 06 February 2020.
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Damien was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal nine south (16.9S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal eight east (119.8E)
Recent movement : west at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 0600 UTC 07
February.
From 0600 UTC 7 February winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of
centre with very high seas.
From 1800 UTC 6 February winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of
centre with very rough to high seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and low to
moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.4 south 118.2 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 07 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 18.0 south 117.3 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to [email protected] or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 06 February 2020.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGIONIssued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 0721 UTC 06/02/2020Name: Tropical Cyclone DamienIdentifier: 05UData At: 0600 UTCLatitude: 16.9SLongitude: 119.8ELocation Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]Movement Towards: west [263 deg]Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]Central Pressure: 992 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 06/1200: 17.2S 119.0E: 035 [070]: 045 [085]: 989+12: 06/1800: 17.4S 118.2E: 050 [090]: 050 [095]: 986+18: 07/0000: 17.6S 117.7E: 055 [100]: 055 [100]: 982+24: 07/0600: 18.0S 117.3E: 070 [130]: 065 [120]: 972+36: 07/1800: 19.3S 117.2E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 954+48: 08/0600: 21.0S 117.4E: 110 [205]: 090 [165]: 950+60: 08/1800: 22.5S 118.1E: 130 [240]: 050 [095]: 982+72: 09/0600: 23.8S 118.4E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 995+96: 10/0600: 25.9S 118.8E: 195 [365]: 030 [055]: 994+120: 11/0600: : : : REMARKS:The low is tracking WSW over open waters off the west Kimberley coast, where seasurface temperatures exceed 30C. Deep convection has persisted over the centresince the circulation moved offshore overnight. ASCAT and SCATSAT indicatemarginal gales around 01UTC and given ongoing convection near the centreindicates TC intensity has been reached. Dvorak CI estimate at 3.0 although DTis somewhat ambiguous with curvature difficult to diagnose and a 24h trend alsoambiguous having been over land. An irregular Vis CDO does indicate a DT of 3.0.The circulation appears to have successfully overcome the moderate to strongwind shear by deflecting the easterly upper winds. Given that the shear is setto ease in the period through to landfall, intensification is likely to beongoing, particularly during Thursday night and into Friday. Hence, rapiddevelopment is possible later Friday due to a combination of decreasing shearand increasing poleward outflow. A category four intensity [90kn] cyclone isforecast at landfall which is above most model guidance though there isconsiderable range on this estimate including variations in track timing.Steady west to west-southwest movement is likely in the next 24h under theinfluence of a steering ridge to the south. The approach of an upper trough fromthe southwest is likely to reposition the steering ridge further east and shiftthe track to the south during Friday towards the coast and landfall is forecaston Saturday. The timing of landfall varies from early Saturday to overnight intoSunday depending upon the steering influences of the ridge to the east and theweakening upper mid-latitude trough.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.
FKAU03 ADRM 070634
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200207/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DAMIEN
ADVISORY NR: 2020/6
OBS PSN: 07/0600Z S1806 E11700
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: SW 04KT
C: 972HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 07/1200 S1842 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/1800 S1924 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 08/0000 S2000 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 08/0600 S2042 E11700
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200207/1300Z
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200207/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DAMIEN
ADVISORY NR: 2020/6
OBS PSN: 07/0600Z S1806 E11700
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: SW 04KT
C: 972HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 07/1200 S1842 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/1800 S1924 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 08/0000 S2000 E11654
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 08/0600 S2042 E11700
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200207/1300Z
TPXS11 PGTW 070629
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 07/0600Z
C. 18.00S
D. 116.97E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 07/0600Z
C. 18.00S
D. 116.97E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON