【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH122019
SH, 12, 2019020512, , BEST, 0, 156S, 645E, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 0, 1008, 175, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shC82019 to sh122019,
FKIO20 FMEE 061213
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190206/1213Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FUNANI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 06/0600Z S1648 E06406
CB: WI 300NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: S 03KT
C: 988HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/1200Z S1716 E06409
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 53KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/1800Z S1748 E06421
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/0000Z S1822 E06445
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 58KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 07/0600Z S1903 E06521
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190206/1200Z=
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190206/1213Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FUNANI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 06/0600Z S1648 E06406
CB: WI 300NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: S 03KT
C: 988HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/1200Z S1716 E06409
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 53KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/1800Z S1748 E06421
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/0000Z S1822 E06445
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 58KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 07/0600Z S1903 E06521
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190206/1200Z=
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
TXXS22 KNES 061206
TCSSIO
A. 12S (FUNANI)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 17.4S
D. 64.4E
E. ONE/MET-8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
B AND EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0 PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHICH
YIELDS A 6HR FT AVERAGE OF 5.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
TCSSIO
A. 12S (FUNANI)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 17.4S
D. 64.4E
E. ONE/MET-8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
B AND EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0 PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHICH
YIELDS A 6HR FT AVERAGE OF 5.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
WTIO31 FMEE 061240 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+.
偷改到60
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+.
偷改到60
2019FEB06 124500 4.1 984.3 67.4 4.1 4.6 6.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.22 -66.89 EYE
即将WMG
即将WMG
TPXS10 PGTW 070002
A. TRO
PICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 18.37S
D. 65.21E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A 4.5 AND THE PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MILAM
A. TRO
PICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)B. 06/2330Z
C. 18.37S
D. 65.21E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A 4.5 AND THE PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MILAM
FKIO20 FMEE 070028
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190207/0028Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FUNANI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/06
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S1824 E06512
CB: WI 280NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: SE 08KT
C: 962HPA
MAX WIND: 85KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S1913 E06556
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S2003 E06642
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S2052 E06730
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S2149 E06825
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190207/0600Z=
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190207/0028Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FUNANI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/06
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S1824 E06512
CB: WI 280NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: SE 08KT
C: 962HPA
MAX WIND: 85KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S1913 E06556
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S2003 E06642
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S2052 E06730
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S2149 E06825
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190207/0600Z=
TPXS10 PGTW 070552
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)
B. 07/0530Z
C. 18.92S
D. 66.16E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET 4.5. PT 5.5 DBO CONSTRAINTS WITH HELP FROM DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)
B. 07/0530Z
C. 18.92S
D. 66.16E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET 4.5. PT 5.5 DBO CONSTRAINTS WITH HELP FROM DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS