【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH042019



楼主 兔宝宝990327  发布于 2018-11-10 15:10:00 +0800 CST  
04S.INVEST

楼主 兔宝宝990327  发布于 2018-11-10 15:11:00 +0800 CST  
TXXS22 KNES 170009
TCSSIO
A. 04S (BOUCHRA)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 10.0S
D. 89.0E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEE

楼主 兔宝宝990327  发布于 2018-11-17 12:00:00 +0800 CST  
WTXS21 PGTW 172230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 87.1E TO 13.9S 79.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 86.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 04S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 92.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 730 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 171542Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04S ARE
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE (26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC
04S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182230Z.
//
NNNN

楼主 兔宝宝990327  发布于 2018-11-18 07:00:00 +0800 CST  

楼主:兔宝宝990327

字数:1838

发表时间:2018-11-10 23:10:00 +0800 CST

更新时间:2018-12-19 17:16:29 +0800 CST

评论数:392条评论

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